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MILLER INDUSTRIES INC /TN/ (MLR)

Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Reported on Mar 6, 2025 (After Market Close)
Pre-Earnings Price$46.47Last close (Mar 6, 2025)
Post-Earnings Price$46.44Open (Mar 7, 2025)
Price Change
$-0.03(-0.06%)
  • Anticipated growth in the second half of 2025 and beyond: Management expects upward momentum in the back half of the year into '26 and beyond, signaling potential revenue growth.
  • Dealer inventories returning to optimal levels: Dealer inventories have been rapidly reducing and are expected to reach optimal levels in the next 2 to 4 months, which should normalize sales and support future revenue.
  • Significant military contracts on the horizon: Major military contracts are slated for production starting in late '26, with the majority in '27 and '28, representing substantial future growth opportunities.
  • The company expects the first half of 2025 to perform similarly to the lower Q4 2024 due to continued lower chassis shipments, indicating near-term revenue and earnings weakness.
  • Regulatory uncertainties due to new emission standards (CARB and ACT regulations) in key states are limiting the number of vehicles the company can sell, making it difficult to forecast operations and potentially impacting sales until compliant products are available.
  • Anticipated military contracts will not contribute to revenue until 2026 and beyond, delaying potential financial benefits and not impacting 2025 guidance.
MetricYoY ChangeReason

Revenue

Marginal decline in Q3 2024 compared to previous periods

Hurricane Helene forced a two‐week production pause at one of Miller Industries’ facilities, lowering output relative to earlier periods; although previous quarters did not experience this disruption, the impact is expected to be offset by a catch-up in Q4 2024.

Order Entry

Decline in Q3 2024 relative to prior periods

A slowdown occurred due to OEM chassis delivery timing issues and political uncertainty, which contrasts with more stable order entry in previous periods, marking a temporary dip in activity.

Production Volume

Reduced in Q3 2024 compared to earlier cycles

The operational disruption from a two-week halt due to Hurricane Helene directly impacted production levels, diverging from previous uninterrupted production periods.

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

Gross Margins

FY 2024

mid‑13% range

no current guidance

no current guidance

SG&A Expenses

FY 2024

6.5% of sales

no current guidance

no current guidance

Revenue Growth

FY 2024

low double‑digit growth

no current guidance

no current guidance

Backlog

FY 2024

expected to return to historical levels in 1–2 quarters

no current guidance

no current guidance

Revenue

FY 2025

no prior guidance

$950 million to $1 billion

no prior guidance

EPS

FY 2025

no prior guidance

$2.90 to $3.20 per diluted share

no prior guidance

Margins

FY 2025

no prior guidance

relatively equal to the previous year

no prior guidance

Chassis Deliveries

FY 2025

no prior guidance

expected to normalize in the second half of 2025

no prior guidance

TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

Chassis Supply Chain and OEM Deliveries

Q1 highlighted record levels and a strong, diversified supply chain. Q2 mentioned normalization, increased OEM deliveries, and early chatter on pre-buy trends. Q3 focused on normalization and its impact on margins.

Q4 emphasized volatility in deliveries, inventory buildup, strategic delays, and an outlook for normalization by mid‐2025.

Evolving sentiment: Earlier periods celebrated normalization, but Q4 is marked by short‐term volatility and corrective inventory measures while still planning for stabilization.

Production Capacity and Throughput Constraints

Q1 discussed process adjustments and maximizing current capacity. Q2 detailed capacity expansion plans and efforts to manage throughput. Q3 noted planned expansion with challenges in distributor throughput.

Q4 did not detail throughput constraints explicitly but focused on inventory management and announced an EUR 8 million expansion in France.

Shift in focus: The focus is transitioning from addressing throughput constraints to proactive capacity expansion and inventory management for long‑term demand.

Regulatory Challenges and Emission Standards Impact

Q1 had no mention; Q2 noted OEM chatter regarding 2027 emissions changes. Q3 briefly touched on global compliance impacting SG&A.

Q4 provided detailed discussion of ACT/CARB regulations, lobbying efforts, and plans for CARB compliant chassis production.

Increasing importance: This topic has grown from minor mentions to a detailed and critical component of strategy in Q4, reflecting its rising impact on future operations.

Military Contract Opportunities

Q1 and Q2 were silent; Q3 mentioned potential opportunities in international and military sectors.

Q4 featured a significant military contract with Rheinmetall Canada and highlighted multiple near‑term projects.

Emerging high‑impact area: What began as potential is now a focal growth driver with large, contract‐based opportunities on the horizon.

Dealer Inventory Optimization

Q1 did not mention this; Q2 briefly noted cash conversion improvements linked to dealer inventory. Q3 discussed distributors managing excess inventory.

Q4 offered an in‑depth strategy for reducing excessive dealer inventories through delayed shipments and careful management.

Heightened strategic focus: The topic has evolved from a side note to a major lever for balancing short‑term sales impacts with long‑term dealer network health.

Market Sentiment and Political Environment

Q1 provided no insight; Q2 noted robust international demand and optimism if geopolitical tensions ease. Q3 discussed political uncertainty and post‐election recovery.

Q4 addressed rising equipment ownership costs and detailed regulatory and political pressures, particularly tied to ACT regulations.

Increased emphasis: While consistently present, the political environment is now more closely tied to regulatory challenges affecting market sentiment.

Profitability, Margin Stability and SG&A Expenses

Consistently featured across Q1, Q2, and Q3 with discussions on improved profitability, evolving product mix impacts on gross margins, and careful SG&A management.

Q4 reported full‑year profitability growth alongside a Q4 quarterly decline in net income, with margin improvements driven by product mix.

Stable long‑term with short‑term hurdles: Margins have generally stabilized, though Q4 reflects transient challenges likely linked to inventory and supply issues.

Capital Expenditure and Future Investment Risks

Q1 highlighted share repurchase and process optimizations. Q2 focused on early capacity expansion plans and borrowing for growth. Q3 discussed potential for further capacity expansion.

Q4 detailed an EUR 8 million expansion in France along with risks tied to regulatory changes, tariff uncertainty, and chassis supply volatility.

Ramping up investments amid risk: There is a clear escalation in capital expenditure plans coupled with increased awareness of multiple future investment risks.

Supply Chain Diversification and Resilience

Q1 emphasized a robust, diversified supply chain yielding record revenues and improved margins. Q3 reiterated supply chain stability.

Q4 reaffirmed efforts in global diversification, increased in‑sourcing, and reduced dependence on China to mitigate tariff and supply risks.

Consistent and reinforcing: The focus remains steady, with Q4 reinforcing earlier initiatives to enhance resilience through diversification.

Research analysts covering MILLER INDUSTRIES INC /TN/.