Executive Summary

Q4 2024 revenue was $221.9M, down 25.1% year over year on lower chassis shipments; diluted EPS was $0.91 vs $1.45 in Q4 2023, while gross margin improved to 15.1% on favorable mix .
Management issued FY 2025 guidance of $950M–$1.0B revenue and diluted EPS of $2.90–$3.20, with expectations for a softer 1H and normalization in 2H as chassis deliveries stabilize; margins are expected to be roughly equal to last year .
Distributor inventory reduction and CARB/ACT regulatory limits are near‑term headwinds; management delayed some chassis shipments to support dealer health and working capital conversion, and sees improved free cash flow in 2025 .
Military demand is a multiyear tailwind; Miller was selected as a supplier to Rheinmetall Canada for 85 recovery vehicles as part of a ~$230M program, with deliveries beginning in 2027 (timing limits near‑term financial impact) .
Dividend increased to $0.20 per share (57th consecutive quarter); 2024 share repurchases totaled 49,500 shares (~$2.9M) under a $25M authorization, reinforcing capital return priorities alongside debt reduction .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Gross margin expanded to 15.1% vs 13.0% last year, driven by product mix (higher percentage of manufactured bodies vs chassis) .
Working capital improvement underway: accounts receivable fell by >$60M QoQ and accounts payable dropped by ~$90M in Q4; management expects stronger free cash flow and is focused on deleveraging in 2025 .
Strategic tailwinds: military RFQs are accelerating; Miller was chosen to supply Canadian military recovery vehicles, and management sees normalized chassis deliveries and backlog health in 2H 2025 and beyond .

Notable quotes:

“2024 was another record year… Looking to 2025… we are scheduled to launch multiple new products… [and] anticipate… exciting developments in our military end‑markets.” — CEO William G. Miller II .
“Our blended margin was correlated directly to product mix… chassis deliveries have become much more sporadic… [We] expect this volatility to subside… in the second half of 2025.” — CFO Deborah L. Whitmire .

What Went Wrong

Revenue and earnings contracted YoY on lower chassis shipments: net sales down 25.1% to $221.9M; diluted EPS down to $0.91 (−37.0% YoY) .
Distributor inventory buildup and CARB/ACT regulatory limits constrained near‑term sales; management deliberately slowed chassis shipments to support dealer network health .
SG&A rose YoY in Q4 to $19.7M (8.9% of sales) due to executive compensation, workforce investment, product launches, and military contract-related costs .

Financial Results

Quarterly Performance (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$371.5	$314.3	$221.9
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$51.1	$42.0	$33.5
Gross Margin %	13.8%	13.4%	15.1%
SG&A ($USD Millions)	$22.8	$22.3	$19.7
SG&A as % of Sales	6.1%	7.1%	8.9%
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$20.5	$15.4	$10.5
Diluted EPS ($)	$1.78	$1.33	$0.91
Interest Expense, Net ($USD Millions)	$2.05	$0.25	$0.38

Q4 2024 vs Prior Periods and Estimates

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q4 2023	Consensus Estimate (Q4 2024)
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$314.3	$221.9	$296.2	N/A – S&P Global consensus unavailable this session
Diluted EPS ($)	$1.33	$0.91	$1.45	N/A – S&P Global consensus unavailable this session
Gross Margin %	13.4%	15.1%	13.0%	N/A – S&P Global consensus unavailable this session
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$15.4	$10.5	$16.7	N/A – S&P Global consensus unavailable this session

Notes: S&P Global Wall Street consensus estimates were unavailable due to request limits; therefore, estimate comparisons are not provided.

Balance Sheet Highlights

Cash: $24.3M at 12/31/24 vs $40.6M at 9/30/24 .
Accounts receivable: $313.4M at 12/31/24 vs $374.0M at 9/30/24 .
Accounts payable: $145.9M at 12/31/24 vs $234.2M at 9/30/24 .
Long‑term obligations (debt): $65.0M at both 12/31/24 and 9/30/24 .

Segment breakdown: Not disclosed in company materials for the quarter .

KPIs:

Dividend declared: $0.19 per share in Q3 (paid Dec 2024) and increased to $0.20 per share for March 24, 2025 (57th consecutive quarter) .
2024 repurchases: 49,500 shares (~$2.9M) under $25M authorization .
Return on equity (presentation): 16.9% based on average equity (FY 2024) .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue ($USD)	FY 2025	N/A	$950M – $1.0B	New
Diluted EPS ($)	FY 2025	N/A	$2.90 – $3.20	New
Gross Margin	FY 2025	N/A	“Relatively equal to last year” (qualitative)	Maintained (qualitative)
Dividend per share ($)	Q1 2025	$0.19 (Q3 2024)	$0.20	Raised
Share repurchases	2024	$25M authorization	49,500 shares repurchased (~$2.9M)	Program active

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q2 2024 (Prev)	Q3 2024 (Prev)	Q4 2024 (Current)	Trend
Chassis deliveries & mix	Elevated OEM chassis deliveries; normalization expected in 2H	Normalization vs prior year; Hurricane Helene caused minor delivery delays	Deliberate slowdown of chassis shipments to help distributors; expect normalization 2H 2025	Stabilizing by 2H 2025
Distributor inventory	Focus on shifting product to end users; backlog reduction	Order entry decelerated; plan to produce near record until backlog normalizes	Inventory reduction ongoing; 2–4 months to return to optimal levels	Improving
Tariffs/macro costs	Not highlighted	Political uncertainty cited for order timing	Tariffs and rising ownership costs (insurance, rates, used values) pressuring customers	Headwind
CARB/ACT regulation	Not highlighted	Not highlighted	Limits diesel registrations in 6 states; suppliers developing CARB‑compliant chassis; potential repeal actions noted	Regulatory constraint near term; compliance by 2025–2026
Military demand	Not highlighted	Not highlighted	Selected supplier to Rheinmetall Canada; RFQs increasing; deliveries begin in 2027	Building multiyear tailwind
Capital allocation	Dividend and potential capacity investments; repurchase program	Dividend and repurchases continued	Dividend increased; debt reduction focus; €8M France expansion authorized	Shareholder returns + targeted growth

Management Commentary

“We are confident that the dynamics in the chassis market have finally normalized… [leading to] more stable and predictable revenues and margins quarter to quarter.” — CEO William G. Miller II .
“Because of the increased volatility in the chassis supply chain… [we] expect this volatility to subside… with reduced lead times helping to stabilize the market.” — CFO Deborah L. Whitmire .
“Q1 and Q2 will be similar to Q4… chassis shipments still being a little lower than normal… [then] upward momentum through the back half of the year into ’26 and beyond.” — CEO William G. Miller II .
“We are on track to achieve $950M to $1B in revenue… and an EPS range from $2.90 to $3.20 per diluted share.” — CEO William G. Miller II .

Q&A Highlights

Military timing: Current Canadian program and other potential contracts largely begin production in late 2026–2028, limiting near‑term financial impact to 2025; supports medium‑term growth .
2025 cadence: Management expects Q1–Q2 to resemble Q4’s lower chassis shipments, with acceleration in 2H 2025; margins for the year anticipated to be relatively equal to last year .
Working capital: Targeting inventory reduction back to historical levels; pre‑COVID working capital ran ~20% of revenue, serving as a benchmark .
Dealer support: Dealer network “extremely healthy”; rapid inventory reduction since Nov/Dec; expected to reach optimal levels within 2–4 months .

Estimates Context

S&P Global Wall Street consensus estimates for Q4 2024 (EPS, revenue, EBITDA) were unavailable due to request limits during this session; as a result, quantitative comparisons to consensus cannot be provided. Based on management’s guidance (softer 1H and FY 2025 outlook of $950M–$1.0B revenue and $2.90–$3.20 EPS), sell‑side models may need to reflect a lower first‑half run‑rate and a back‑half recovery in chassis deliveries .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Q4 2024 showed sharp YoY declines in revenue and EPS on lower chassis shipments, but gross margin improved on favorable mix; near‑term cadence remains soft in 1H 2025 per management .
Guidance implies significant deceleration vs 2024 actuals; watch for distributor inventory normalization and chassis delivery stabilization in 2H 2025 as catalysts for improving revenue and cash conversion .
Regulatory overhang (CARB/ACT) constrains diesel chassis allocation in six states; mitigants include supplier work with Cummins on compliant chassis and potential regulatory changes; compliance rollout by late 2025/2026 .
Military programs provide multiyear optionality, with Canadian deliveries commencing in 2027; not a 2025 driver but supportive of medium‑term growth narrative .
Capital return and balance sheet: dividend increased to $0.20; repurchases active; debt at $65M with intent to reduce as FCF improves; monitor AR and AP trends as working capital normalizes .
Trading implications: near‑term prints likely constrained by dealer inventory and regulatory factors; the narrative hinges on visible 2H normalization and CARB‑compliant chassis timing—positive updates on delivery cadence or regulatory relief would be stock catalysts .
Medium‑term thesis: leading market position, product launches, diversified supply chain, healthy distribution network, and global military RFQs underpin a constructive outlook into 2026+ .

MILLER INDUSTRIES INC /TN/ (MLR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary